Atikur Bhuiyan
Introduction
This is an individual report and this report reviews the dynamic decision-making. I am going to explain how decision-making affects to our daily life based on some useful theories and some based on my real-life decision which I was taken a few years back. On this study, I will analysis emotion, creativity, cognitive biases and decision-making, as well as, I will explain my group work experience in the groupthink part with some theme. In addition, Appendix 1, I am going to add my HEXACO profile test report with four group scenarios. However, peer review and reflection will be added to Appendix 2.
Emotions, Creativity and Decision-making
The everyday fact about decision-making is emotions. Decision-making always affected by emotions. My decision-making procedure I will examine to two things one is my emotions and another one is how emotions affect to taking the decision. Emotion always changed into two different ways throughout decision-making, for examples the immediate emotions and the anticipating emotions (Lowenstein and Lerner, 2003).
Pfister and Böhm (2008), emotions can’t be just an influence it’s playing a key role in decision-making. There is fourfold responsibility operated by emotions during the clear decision-making procedure. There is speed function, information function, commitment function, and relevance function which are classified by Pfister and Böhm (2008).
The component processing model delivers an emotion chapters involved throughout a structure of happening which is successfully explain the synchronization (Scherer 2005). In Scherer’s, (2005) component model of emotion, there are five components of emotion are found. Such as Cognitive appraisal, Physically symptoms, Action tendencies, Expression, Feelings. An easy way to clarification I am going to use and explain some of the emotion themes.
Domain-relevant skills, Creativity-relevant processes, task motivation, social environment these four components are creativity-base which is linked to decision-making. Creativity has the power to solve all kinds of problems, it’s able to change the environments quickly. For entrepreneur’s creativity is most important, it is the first step to create new opportunity. Creativity is the create something from the workplace, making business original solutions into new products or processes. (Woodman et al., 1993). The creativity and innovation of thoughts which is we are using it now new way and it is useful that’s way creativity explain today (Amiable, 1988). I’m going to discuss how it’s linked with decision-making theme which I will describe for better understand.
Integral emotions influence decision-making
Integral emotions theme, arising from the choice at hand or judgment, Integral is that kind of emotion which is able to help us to take decision consistently and powerfully (Lerner et al., 2015). In my everyday life, I believe that I am the unsettled person after reproducing on the integral emotion concepts discussion. Always I regret my decision and it difficult for me to make a quick decision because of fear. Before taking a decision, I can find I lots of choices with hopes, I’m trying to keep open as many as doors to find the better option for me. But sometimes it doesn’t work for me because of that I found out myself somewhere in the bad position with problems which I cannot able to solve because of my decision. For example, I have done my MBA from the UK. That time I wasn’t sure about my decision whether to pursue doing my second master degree, to find out a job in the UK or off to my country. Because my goal wasn’t clear to me and I was confused about my decision. That time my emotion was mixed: that time I felt nervous and I wasn’t able to think about any clear decision to take. My final decision was to get back to my home country for better future and started doing the job as a marketing manager for 6 months and afterward, I started my own business. By that time, I was thinking about my second master then I decided to do my master in international business from the Netherlands and for now on this is one of the best decision for me which made.
Incidental emotions influence decision-making
The incidental emotions comprehensively carry over from one condition to the another, from a normative perspective we should look at which is affecting to take the decision and that is unrelated to the emotion which is affecting to make (Lerner & Tiedens 2006, Loewenstein & Lerner 2003, Pham 2007, Vohs et al 2007). About the incidental emotions themes are depend on mood. such as: When its good, it’s good, but when I’m bad, it’s very bad. I’m going to share my knowledge or experience from the trading movement which is the reply to this system. After started my own business before coming here and part of the business for 9 months I began to learn how mood or mind works. I feel my psychology level has been going high for the pressure of right way to running a business and risk of losing capital. if I think my investment doesn’t transfer to the other way with one fear that is if I look at my business-like robot for hours every day. This is the way of make my brain and energy weak. To destroy and outflow that fear of losing investment I found the way of establishing my business which is check my account twice a day and look after my business. If my business doing good trade end of the day it’s making me feel better. Because of that good trade, I used to gain more confidence for doing my business smoothly and easily. We are not able to beat any market because of behavior. who knows happens next. so, I can lose my business within a minute. However, my mood and mind going down because of bad business what I made and sometimes I provided the wrong decision for the bad situation.
Emotions Shape Decision via Depth of Thought
When something demands for additional attention by the time emotions play an adaptability character by signalling, negative mood gives us threat after that we can able to increase alert and organized managing, On the other hand we can get safe environment signal from positive mood which gives us more experiential processing (Schwarz 1990, Schwarz & Bless 1991). Nevertheless, a different school of considerations is existing for example exclusive of emotional participation decision-making is not the best and it’s not possible to take the decision without emotions involvement (Damasio 1994). I consider for making rational decisions it is not easy to apply for everyone, who has strong control on emotion and that kind of person never involve any kind of problem to take a decision.
Cognitive biases and Decision-making
Dynamic decision-making is individual and interdependent decision-making process. The basic part of our ordinary life is Dynamic Decision Making, from easy jobs, for example, taking a shower to control inventory/ stock decisions in a supply chain company. DDM is a task which is able to learn and practice, though most of the administrative decision cannot get success or final result is the failure, (Dörner 1989, Sterman 1989, Keating et al. 1999, Brehmer 1992, Collins 2001,).
As a human being, I am influenced by decision-making in my daily life. Whenever people are conscious and when people are not, in that time lots of things going on in our brain. Based on Kahneman and Tversky (1974). Another way to say, the psychological researcher has acknowledged few typical inferential rules which are people can use for when evaluating uncertainty, (Kahneman and Tversky, 1974). In strategic planning, hard to go so far and need to find and control their significance for the future for human judgment. Cognitive biases theory to analysis and finding the motive in daily life about decision-making, in this chapter, I am going to discuss some of cognitive biases.
Availability
According to Kahneman and Tversky (1974), the probability of occurrences may be brought to mind if the assessing availability is the frequency of an event based cases. Who has one special grade for risk perception is called availability (Tversky and Kahneman, 1973). People judge an event frequent if the example is easy to imagine. The availability of heuristic can be created the effects. Sometimes availability can be affected by some numerous factors which are not related to the frequency of occurrence. Montgomery and Weinberg (1973). The availability has that imaginary power which can discussion of risk or possibility. For example, When I think about any cricket match in the particular time I feel the cognitive bias, in most of the cases, when a big team such as South Africa cricket team against any other team. South Africa is a strong team with lots of good players that time I ensure they can win the match without thinking the opponent strength.
Representativeness
Tversky and Kahneman (1974), pointed out the representativeness bias and prediction of the moment as a cognitive process. Because of, a decision-maker misjudge the situation. This process responsible for the decision-makers which have to be supervised and to understanding decisions in terms of similarities. Misjudge can be caused for detriment. The past representative and solutions their problem in the past which can be created the problem in the present. The representativeness biases inconsiderateness involves to likelihood. Prediction can be effected at the various time of decision-making but the evidence of the predictions cannot be trustworthy only the cues are the related which is used to predict it, (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). Decision-makers always thoughtless to making predictions. Past strategies can be necessary to make overviews which are the requirement for a strategic decision-making but sometimes past strategies unable to collect data from the small database. In that case, they have to more confidence about the prediction from the small amount of data. Tversky and Kahneman, (1974) said it is the ‘law of small numbers. Nisbett and Ross (1980), the law of small numbers is the limit for decision-maker when considering a few described cases. Who has lack of ability to prediction they should have to do exact courses? For a clear thought, people have the tendency to make everything simplify its happened when people see and hear from the sources. For example, when people watch any news on TV in specific country then first thing comes to mind they will not decide to travel that country as long as the country is safe. That news is the small part of the country people do not realize that thing. decision-makers have to be confident and able to predict and deliver results with validity, (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). Einhorn and Hogarth (1978), self-confidence can be the misconception of legality. The most common appearance of this process would be Self-confidence in predictions, (Hartley, 1976).
Anchoring and Adjustment
Tversky and Kahneman (1974), another process which can be the key for decision-maker to rejects the gap. Which is called the anchoring process. From starting People can make estimate depend on the situation but the finally a personalize value has to be adjusted, (Kahneman and Tversky, 1974). Adjustment cannot be sufficient all the time. According to Ariely (2008), most of the people cannot the assessment the value and don’t have any idea what they want without seeing the situations. Sometimes we didn’t have a real value of something. In my everyday life, I do receive information from the anchor. The Strong example of anchoring and adjustment bias for me I arrived in the Netherlands would be used for better understanding. To compare with my country with the accommodation cost and the food cost in the Netherlands, I was surprised so expensive in the Netherlands. It’s can be happening because my anchoring to price. On the other hand, I found out something which is less price compare to how much I used to spend my country. Though I have to make adjustment and anchoring when spending money while living in the Netherlands.
Affect Heuristic
The affect heuristic speaks for good or bad feelings which are related to motivation. Affect heuristic are quick, natural, and fixed in experimental thought activated by thoughtful decisions, (Slovic, Finucane, Peters, & MacGregor, 2002). The affect heuristic is the shortcut or easy way to allows people to make or take decisions and finding the way to resolve problems quickly and professionally, present emotion includes fear, pleasure and surprise and so on which is effects to make any decision. Nobody ever questioned why people feel so motivated when you go with emotional feelings to making any decision. The affect heuristic is the first and fast responsible theory for decision-making. Some researchers say something which has agreeable feelings, then we can see benefits will be high and risk will be low.
Dynamic decision-making and Overcoming Groupthink
The international business projects group work and my analysis of the group work is the main discussion which I am going to explain in this report. Groupthink is a period where group explains requirements to ignore the debatable issues, (Janis, 1982). It is feel good by working for this group because of we are not from the same country which it helps me to learn more thing. Along with me, there are four more groups members included in the group and our nationality is Bangladeshi, Indian, and Chinese. Moreover, your cultural background is not same to each other. Our individual skills, biases, experiences, individual differences and approaching ability will help towards group work. In Appendix- 2, I will peer reviews of my group’s member and there will be intellectual reflection which is linked to review. The way to describe our group improvement, I will use the theory of four stages models. As a group, the Normative model which I would be mentioned for the decision-making process. Afterward, I will review some downsides of our group and it will show the symptoms of groupthink. At the end, I will discuss how we improve creativeness and originality as a group with I will show the useful methods which are based on our group assessment.
The analyzing four stages models, (Tuckman, 1965), it is final that is now the third stage which called norming stage. For group development, this model use. The four stages are Forming, storming, norming and performing. Tuckman also mentions another stage in this concept. According to the third stage model which is shared the same objective, responsibilities which means norming stages is the best ideal to reached group’s goal. The notable part of our group is able to take the decision and adaptability are quite faster. I would like to say it wasn’t that easy at the very first time to understand and reach the same direction but we able to make it easy to by share knowledge and spend time together. Now our group working together and I’m happy to see the effort by the group member. The right time yet to come to say we are in final stage because of each member output will count this stage, (Tuckman, 1965). But we are pleased with our understanding label to group work.
Work without a group leader was our right group decision. In our group do not have the main person and it was the right decision was not to have the group leader. We are providing support and sharing opinion equally. According to Vroom & Yetton (1973), normative decision-making model, our status describes a group, the problem will show in the group meeting and the ideal collect by group member based on our decision. However, it not easy to agree with other every time. The decision is the meaning of outcomes, which can be affected by the decision process, (Vroom, 2003; Maier, 1963). For example, according to the group discussion about our scenario planning, each group member has to come up with one scenario on time. Because we weren’t clear about assignment so we planned to do that together. Finally, we have done our task on time and after submitting the scenario which was better than before.
On our group discussion, I found some downside even with communication and association in our group. If we are finding any problem in our group work or member then each of us has to prepare the topic before making any discussion to improve our group level productivity.
Finally, we do not use critical way to assess or decision because of our decision comes to an end by agreeing. As Janis, (1972), when a group takes an illegal decision and the ability and honest judgment would be affected by group pressures. The eight documented symptoms are available but I can find two of them in our group. First one Direct pressure on independent means group member is not allowed to be expressing anything against group views and another one is self-censorship, doubts are not expressing by group member and the observed agreement are differences. These are the symptoms of pressure. Nonetheless, we can able to fix these symptoms. I believe, to succeed our result, then we have to improve our group activity by using our group creativity. Janis (1982), group work always brings out the worst thing and the best thing comes sometimes by decision-making.
Amabile;(2012), explained the basic theory of creativity, the four-basic necessary are creative responses. The three modules of individual are Creativity-relevant processes, domain-relevant skills, and basic task motivation. And the social environment outside the individual is working. As Duxbury;(2008), to improve the team creativity of the theory where is with three situations linked with an illegal method. There is some main structure has to be focused such as right team member select, supporting idea visibly and the understanding working location.
Now we know our capabilities over others point of views, already we have done our peer review. Throughout our application, the information shares with each other and create the work environment and supportive. Afterwards, select the skill jobs we have to consider our peer reviews and we can be more innovative during converting tasks and it will do by personal thinking but it is not pointing someone. Next time during the task selection we have to more self-determination and I understand every member have the linking to their skills. So, we have stopped asking the positive question. Together, we will keep in touch actively co-operate with the linked lecture to review our group ideas. If we start to think about an illegal idea on that time we have to ignore the groupthink. I consider that it will be helpful to develop our group implementation and communication.
Conclusions
DDM has been described by numerous, present decisions and dependent which is happening in an environment which is changes independently or due to the past of action which is taken by decision-maker, (Brehmer, 1990; Edwards, 1962). According to David (2001), Our jobs or decisions makes our path, and our previous decision always matters to our present life to take decision-making situation and it has a strong impact on our present or future life.
The important aspects of this study shed light in DDM and this report changed my mind which way I always make the decision in my life. I have to describe some important tools such as my past decision-making experience which was the key impact in my life and specific actions to my decision-making process. According to Sarasvathy (2001),DDM bringing you into line with an effective analysis by questioning who are you, what do you know, whom do you know and how do you know.
For this report, I had to read some books and the articles, one of them is Daniel Kahneman called ‘Thinking Fast and Slow’. In my point of view, all the concepts and models I have been using to write this report has an extraordinary impact in my life. It is a great feeling for me, according to my present life most of the thinking and judgment are matched with my life. I have understood the limitation on my cognitive biases which are interesting and refereeing information. However, I have learned lots of things and not easy to be switching in two systems. The failure of human being decision-maker who has the ability to control DDM and to learn how to observe and understand from their experience. According to Kahneman (2011), sometimes it is better to slow down to understand and ask for support from the system 2 and it has the sign to acknowledge that you are in some cognitive problems. He said the sign is an ‘active mind’ and the forecaster of the achievement can be confirmed by which has switched to system 2 skills. The feedbacks system skills are judgmentally restricted, and even though when it provides lots of chances and it is not obvious to develop the decision-makers act and knowledge. I always think of myself thoughtful and making my decision before applying it.
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Appendix 01
HEXACO Profile:
HEXACO profile is taking 6 personality dimensions to judge someone’s profiles. To better understanding I am going to explain some of them in terms of my point of view.
Extraversion Domain
The transformation from low-level sociable person to high-level, on my HEXACO profile basis it is the light of feature of a situation. On the other hand, to touch the high-level sociability from low-level sociability natural factor which is played a dynamic role with getting the help from my environment and behavioural leadership. I think, this factors which is viewed 3 special tests. Nonetheless, I am going to say as a social boldness person I am happy to speak in everywhere and I am proud to be this group. And I am always feel positive about myself.
Honesty-Humility Domain
Furthermore, in my profile, humility and honesty are natural, as my father is a businessman and discussing my father’s business, I can say it all about honesty what our family member and myself absorbed from my father. However, I like to do helps others in its place enjoying my life. I have a small social team with my friends and family and we are always helps poor people whenever they want and whatever we are able to do.
Emotionality Domain
I always consider myself as a mentally strong and committed person with emotions and I think, for happiness and sorrow on the time usually I’m not having done anything which is extreme.
HEXACO Profile and the First Decision Maker
My past job was as marketing manager on the senior level before I started my own business, I was involved with decision-making team during my career. I can be considered myself as a management expert who always dealing with the politics in organization smartly even though work with various challenging people. My boss said, I was the best as a manager in that organization. On the other hand, I used to work with different countries peoples which is helps me to learn lots of thinks about decision-making.
In this part, I am going to use HEXACO to analysis my quality from different angle based on the next characters.
Business Executive
I am going to use Honesty–Humility domain to analysis my decision-making ability. I scored high in this part. The high score means feel special and avoid to biasing others from individual gain. As a business executive, I always think about organization based on the HEXACO result.
Entrepreneur
Nonetheless, my scored is high in all dimensions, I am thinking about entrepreneurship is my forthcoming profession because of I am from entrepreneurs’ family. In my opinion, which is based on HEXACO I can be successful businessman.
Group Scenarios
Comparing effects on technology and energy on US drive to renewable energy and Indo/Sino policies. That was our group topics, we have looked out this topics throughout four scenario which can be find the impact to a company. The four scenarios are politics, technology, social factors and macroeconomic situations. These are the scenarios we are discussing through the group work about how they affect and impact any business.
Scenario 1 politics
International politics
Politics is the important movement for global development. The Belt and Road, planned by Chinese supreme leader Xi Jinping, this is the concept of doing business and develop among china and other neighbour country. the east and west connect to the Asia-Pacific and European economic circle respectively. The goal of the project is improving the domestic market and build relations with other countries. I think some of East European countries predicted large amount of profit from this project.
Regional politics
Brexit issue worrying in Britain but with some agreement on how its affected to Britain’s economy. The pound has dropped 9% after Brexit. UK export losses money, difficult to entry single market, impact on job sector, decreasing the international investment this are happing after Brexit to the UK businesses.
We found polities is the most important factor for doing business internationally or home country. It can be destroyed any business in a minute.
Scenario 2 Technology
The Progresses of software and hardware are converting ‘big data’ into illegal understandings. Company get lots of things from technology who are knowingly improving working productivities, rising revenue or income opportunities and improving the customer service involvement. There are few essential new high-tech technological in the market to help or develop the business. Company using less number of computers and laptops but smartphones and tablets instead of. The power and storage of computer build-up the particularly large volumes of data. Functioning devices which is connected to the internet are increasing. Towards attach the ‘big data’ movement, international investment in progressive systems is growing so as to improve the abilities to procedure big parts of formless and combination data, for example non-stop present videotape, being blogger, and community gossip. This progress will help to lead the software – and ultimately hardware – which may be translated ‘big data’ hooked on illegal understandings. The Progresses in Simulated Brain systems, for example device studying, ordinary language supportive, and quick decision-making will be allowed businesses towards progress from spending time on technology for operation administering towards decision-making. Technology can be best support to the business, on the other hand, company can be loss lots of things by technology.
Scenario 3 Social Factor
Consumer dynamics issues take a great afford to the world-wide business arrangements and supply logistics. That’s why the questions always like this: who and Where are the consumers? and What are they going to buy? are they judgementally essential to the supply chain supervisors. Few of the international movements in Europe who can justify specific consideration, such as, mature, development, European migrant disaster, modifications in the ways to purchasing and outlooks of the people regarding the background.
Lower fertility and longer lives
Women and families are selecting to take less children than what was in the earlier and in most European nations the overall retro productiveness percentage has dropped to good under two children. The Important drivers of decreasing productiveness percentages involve to new health and family preparation, advanced levels of learning achievement for the women, and additional women inserting in the workforce, and, generally, the exchanging part of the women in the humanity. The people of Europe is increasing grown-up than it takes forever already. European countries have been taken place nine of the top ten highest middle ages in nation-wide residents. Only Japan had a senior people.
Together with lower productiveness percentages, longer lifecycles because of developed work circumstances, healthcare, and hygienic situations are adding to senior population and a lesser labour intensity. The supply and requirement of belongings and facilities in an economy modification with the organization of the people. The weakening in birth percentages means request can be reduced. It also shows superior rivalry as the entire trades reduction.
Potential migrants
Gallup has published a report approximating potential migrants in 2010. The report projected that 700 million grown-up’s universals would like to choose to migrate to alternative country. Potential migrants were requested for their home country of predilection if they have got free choice.
Buying habits and lifestyles
Today newer clients, with the all-important visionary group of consumers, have come of age missing the intelligence of boundaries in business that their seniors have been artificial to acknowledge. They don’t consider the business wants to happen from one side to the prohibiting of alternative or another side. Now new shopping ways meet extra and additional people using the Internet for doing shopping activities.
E–commerce sales
Now Europe developed their e-commerce business And the European e-commerce business growing day by day.
Scenario 4 Macroeconomics
Economic and politics are always related and connected and can affected to each other.
described five megatrends which company can be using to gain a modest benefit in the upcoming period. The five megatrends:
The Great Global Rebalancing
The Productivity Imperative
Big Data and the Global Grid
The Volatile New Normal
The New Economic Drivers
Market Research 